Johnson up 8 points on Fargo in Sacramento mayor’s race
Former NBA star Kevin Johnson has opened up an eight-point lead over incumbent Heather Fargo in the race for Sacramento mayor, but a large block of undecided voters still could swing the Nov. 4 election.
Johnson leads Fargo 48 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, according to a new poll commissioned by The Bee. Of 500 likely voters surveyed, 12 percent said they hadn’t made up their minds.
“He’s got what looks like a comfortable lead right now, but there are a lot of issues that could change that,” said Cheryl Katz, vice president of Baldassare Associates, the firm that conducted the poll. Residents were surveyed from Oct. 19 to Oct. 22, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
With so many voters undecided so close to Election Day, Katz said she would expect “an onslaught of advertising” in the final days of the race.
For some undecided voters, neither candidate is terribly appealing. “I don’t particularly like either one of them,” said Paul Kinney, a radio commercial producer from Greenhaven. Kinney said he doesn’t think Fargo has done a good enough job speeding redevelopment of the railyard or downtown, or of handling the city budget. At the same time, he has questions about Johnson’s character and his management of the St. HOPE organization.
“If push came to shove, I’d probably give Kevin Johnson a try,” Kinney said.
Johnson and Fargo have spent weeks attacking each other – with each claiming the other is a bad manager.
Johnson has criticized Fargo for failing to detect mismanagement and corruption in the city Utilities Department, where a recent audit found poor oversight, failure to follow competitive bidding procedures and unaccounted-for water meters, camcorders and cameras.
Fargo, in turn, has said Johnson mismanaged his St. HOPE organization, which runs an array of nonprofit endeavors, including three schools, a development company, an art gallery, and Hood Corps, an urban peace corps program.
A recent federal investigation found that St. HOPE Academy, which oversees Hood Corps, misused federal money. While the probe continues, Johnson and St. HOPE Academy have been placed on a list of people and organizations barred from receiving federal funds or contracts.
Most voters haven’t been swayed by the attacks and counterattacks, the poll found.
“Voters want to hear about the issues that affect their lives,” Katz said. “All these other issues tend to be just distractions.”
When likely voters were asked about the water meter scandal, 63 percent said it would make no difference in their vote. Similarly, 52 percent said the federal investigation into St. HOPE would not affect their decision.
Asked about Fargo’s overall performance as mayor, 49 percent of those surveyed said she has handled her duties well. Thirty-seven percent disapproved of her job performance, while 14 percent said they didn’t know.
Forty-five percent of those surveyed said they approved of the way Johnson has managed St. HOPE and its Sacramento Charter High School. Another 23 percent said they disapproved, while 32 percent said they didn’t know.
The survey found three main issues on voters’ minds this election season: crime, the economy and the city budget.
Topping the list was crime, with 23 percent of those surveyed saying it is the most important problem facing Sacramento. Here, Johnson’s campaign has clearly struck a chord with its pledge to beef up funding for police and fire services. Among voters who ranked crime as their top concern, 61 percent said they would vote for Johnson compared with 31 percent for Fargo.
“I’ve got Section 8 apartments two blocks from my house, vehicle break-ins, robberies, home invasions. Now they’re talking about cutting cops,” said Jason Alexander, a private investigator from North Natomas. Alexander said he is supporting Johnson.
Public safety was followed closely by a newly urgent concern: the economy. Twenty-two percent of voters surveyed listed the economy and jobs as the biggest problem facing Sacramento today. And here, Fargo fared better. Forty-five percent of those who cited the economy as their top concern supported Fargo, compared with 41 percent who said they would vote for Johnson.
Ranking third among voter worries was the city budget, which 21 percent put at the top of their list. Here, again, Fargo is vulnerable, the poll found. Half of the voters concerned about the budget said they supported Johnson, compared with 43 percent for the two-term incumbent.
The poll found that Republicans were most concerned about crime, and Democrats about jobs. This split is echoed in greater Republican support for Johnson – 62 percent to 23 percent – and greater support for Fargo among Democrats – 49 percent to 41 percent.
Despite their worries about crime and jobs, more than half the voters surveyed said they thought “things in Sacramento are generally going in the right direction.” About a third said things are going in the wrong direction, and 14 percent said they didn’t know.
A healthy majority of Fargo voters – 71 percent – say things are on the right track, compared with 41 percent of Johnson supporters.
East Sacramento resident Gary Marshall said he sees no reason to replace Fargo. “My experience as a citizen of the city is that things are going fairly well,” he said. “I like what’s been going on in midtown and downtown. She seems OK to me.”
The latest Bee poll is a reverse image of one conducted just before the June primary election, which found Fargo ahead of Johnson 37 percent to 30 percent, with nearly a third of those surveyed undecided. When election day came, the results were far different, suggesting that many of the undecided voters chose Johnson.
Johnson beat Fargo in the primary by 46 percent to 39 percent, forcing a runoff. Other candidates in the primary siphoned off about 15 percent of the vote.
Turnout for the June primary was dismal. Less than a third of registered voters in Sacramento County came to the polls. With so few people casting ballots, Johnson’s aggressive get-out-the-vote effort may have determined the outcome, Katz said.
The dynamics are likely to be different Nov. 4. Elections officials predict a huge turnout because of interest in the presidential contest between Barack Obama and John McCain. In the city of Sacramento, which overwhelmingly supports Obama, Democrats are expected to flood the polls.
Heavy Democratic turnout may favor Fargo, Katz said. “The top of the ticket is drawing Democrats, and she is seen as more favorable by Democrats,” Katz said.
But Johnson may get a boost from independents and minor party voters, who preferred him by 49 percent to 36 percent.
Neither candidate has staked out an exclusive claim on Obama voters, the poll found. Johnson has highlighted his role as an early Obama supporter and surrogate speaker, and Fargo has stressed that she – like Obama – is the nominee favored by the local Democratic party. The poll found that 46 percent of people who identified themselves as Obama voters supported Johnson, while 44 percent said they would vote for Fargo.
